45th Ontario general election

Electoral Context and Seat Distribution

This total was established through two major redistributions. The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 first increased the number of seats to 122, aligning provincial boundaries with the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario while protecting the 11 northern seats defined in 1996. Subsequently, the Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission recommended creating two new ridings, Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk, James Bay, from parts of Kenora, Rainy River and Timmins, James Bay.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission recommended creating the districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk, James Bay. This recommendation was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017, raising the total number of seats to 124. Following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Premier Doug Ford announced on August 1, 2024, that Ontario would not adopt the federal boundary changes for the 2025 provincial election. Ontario does not have legislation for a scheduled review of electoral districts, so any boundary changes would require new legislation.

Determining the Election Date

The timing of the 45th general election is governed by constitutional and legislative rules. Ontario repealed its fixed election date legislation on November 27, 2025, returning to a more flexible system. The ultimate constitutional limit is set by Section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, which mandates that a legislature cannot continue for more than five years without an election. The clock for the current assembly started on the date the writs were returned for the 44th general election, which was March 7, 2025.

This means the Legislative Assembly of Ontario will be automatically dissolved on March 7, 2030, if it has not been dissolved earlier by the lieutenant governor on the advice of the premier. Following dissolution, the election must be held on the fifth Thursday after the issuing of the writs. Given the automatic dissolution date of March 7, 2030, the latest possible date for the election is April 11, 2030, which is the tentative scheduled date. Premier Doug Ford retains the prerogative to request an earlier dissolution, potentially triggering an election before this date.

Political Landscape and Leadership

The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, led by Premier Doug Ford, enters the electoral cycle seeking a fourth consecutive term in government. Ford confirmed his intention to run again, as there are no term limits for the premier. The party secured a third majority government in the February 2025 election. The official opposition remains the Ontario New Democratic Party under leader Marit Stiles.

Stiles solidified her position at the party's September 2025 convention, receiving 68% support in a leadership review vote and vowing to continue as leader. The Ontario Liberal Party underwent a significant leadership transition following the 2025 election. Leader Bonnie Crombie announced her intention to resign on September 14, 2025, after a disappointing leadership review where she received only 57% support. She initially stated she would remain until a successor was chosen.

Bonnie Crombie resigned as Liberal leader on January 14, 2026. John Fraser was nominated as interim Liberal leader on January 19, 2026. Fraser was formally appointed as interim Liberal leader on January 22, 2026. Crombie had initially announced her intention to resign on September 14, 2025, following a leadership review vote.

By-elections and Seat Changes Pre-2030

Several by-elections held between the 2025 and 2030 general elections have altered the composition of the legislature. On September 3, 2026, three provincial by-elections were held. The NDP's Fatima Shaban won the Scarborough Southwest by-election, a seat previously held by the NDP's Doly Begum who resigned on February 3, 2026, to run federally. The Progressive Conservatives retained two seats, with Jeff Beattie winning in Hamilton East, Stoney Creek and Susan Lahey winning in York, Simcoe.

These by-elections followed announcements from two PC MPPs to retire from politics. Caroline Mulroney announced on May 25, 2026, her intention to resign as MPP on June 5, 2026. Neil Lumsden announced on July 17, 2026, his plan to resign as MPP on August 4, 2026. These departures created vacancies that were filled in the September 2026 votes. The results of these by-elections provide early indicators of party strength and voter sentiment heading toward the 2030 general election.

Electoral Administration and Reforms

Elections Ontario is the independent, non-partisan agency responsible for administering provincial elections, by-elections, and referenda. In the period leading up to the 45th general election, the agency continues its work on public education and preparing for the eventual vote. The agency also administers the political financing framework, including the public disclosure of contributions and financial statements from political parties, constituency associations, candidates, and leadership contestants. The provincial government has proposed measures to strengthen electoral processes.

One proposal is to make the quarterly per-vote subsidy received by all parties a permanent measure. This subsidy is currently set to expire at the end of 2026. The subsidy provides funding to parties based on their share of the popular vote. Making it permanent would affect party finances for future elections.

Campus Voting and Youth Engagement

Engaging young and student voters is a recurring focus for electoral administrators. A survey of campus voters was conducted in relation to a general election, offering insights into participation at post-secondary institutions. The survey gathered responses from 982 individuals, with an average completion time of 21 minutes and a median time of just under five minutes. It was distributed via QR codes given to both voters and non-voters at campus polling stations to capture a range of perspectives.

The survey results showed notable regional disparities in response rates compared to actual ballot counts. Manitoba and Ontario were the only provinces where the survey sample proportionally reflected the actual volume of campus ballots cast. Over 43% of survey respondents reported voting at a Quebec institution, though Quebec campuses accounted for only 31% of actual campus votes. Responses were collected from 50% of the institutions that participated in the campus voting program.

Five institutions accounted for nearly half of all survey responses from a campus voting survey. These institutions were Université de Sherbrooke, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, Carleton University, University of Toronto, and University of Saskatchewan. In comparison, these five institutions accounted for only 6% of the actual campus ballots cast. The survey results are not statistically projectable due to incomplete coverage of participating institutions and a lack of weighting in the analysis.

Questions about 45th Ontario general election

When is the next Ontario election?

The 45th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled for April 11, 2030. This is the latest possible date under the constitutional five-year limit. The Legislative Assembly will be automatically dissolved on March 7, 2030, five years after the return of the writs from the 2025 election. Premier Doug Ford could request an earlier dissolution from the lieutenant governor, triggering an election before April 2030, as Ontario repealed its fixed election date law in 2025.

How many seats are in the Ontario legislature?

There are 124 electoral districts, known as ridings, in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario. This number was increased from 107 through two legislative changes. The 2015 Act raised the total to 122, and the 2017 Act created two new northern ridings, Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk, James Bay, bringing the final count to 124. The provincial boundaries are not aligned with the newer federal electoral districts established after the 2022 federal redistribution.

Who is the leader of the Ontario Liberal Party?

As of January 2026, the Ontario Liberal Party is led by interim leader John Fraser. He was nominated by the caucus on January 19, 2026, and formally appointed on January 22, 2026, following the resignation of former leader Bonnie Crombie. Crombie resigned after a leadership review in September 2025 where she received 57% support. The party will need to conduct a full leadership race to choose a permanent leader before the 2030 general election.

Is the Ontario election date fixed?

No, Ontario no longer has fixed election date legislation. The province repealed its fixed election date law on November 27, 2025. The election is now governed by the constitutional five-year maximum term for a legislature. The premier retains the power to advise the lieutenant governor to dissolve the legislature earlier, providing flexibility on the election timing within that five-year window.

What happened in the 2026 Ontario by-elections?

Three provincial by-elections were held on September 3, 2026. The NDP's Fatima Shaban won in Scarborough Southwest, a seat left vacant when NDP MPP Doly Begum resigned to run federally. The Progressive Conservatives held two seats, with Jeff Beattie winning in Hamilton East, Stoney Creek and Susan Lahey winning in York, Simcoe. These seats became vacant following the retirements of PC MPPs Caroline Mulroney and Neil Lumsden earlier in 2026.

Sources: Wikipedia and current public reporting, checked by the Nosy Mag desk. Last updated 2026-10-19.