Federal budget to include immigration levels plan as government seeks 'sustainable' path

Analysis

The federal government will include its annual immigration levels plan in the budget document to be released on Thursday, a government source with knowledge of the plan confirmed. This marks the second consecutive year the immigration update has been packaged with the budget. Prime Minister Mark Carney has stated immigration is now back under control, framing the next question as when to begin a “controlled increase” in population. The government's current approach aims to lower the number of temporary residents while managing permanent admissions. Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said Monday that Canada was previously bringing in more people than public services could handle or communities could absorb. “I always felt that you need to welcome people to Canada, but on a level that allows you to provide the basic services or the infrastructure that can support the people coming into our shore,” Champagne said during a pre-budget appearance at the Canadian Club of Ottawa. He added that the government has brought immigration to a more sustainable level for the present and the future.

Shifting from population growth to productivity

In a separate speech to the Canadian Club of Toronto, also on Monday, Champagne argued Canada has relied too heavily on an expanding population for economic growth. He said the focus should shift to improving worker and business productivity. The Carney government has blamed rapid population growth under the previous Liberal administration for exacerbating the cost of living squeeze and the housing crisis. The previous government had planned to admit 500,000 permanent residents annually, a target the current government has reduced.

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The current plan is to admit 380,000 permanent residents each year. However, there are two one-time programs running through 2026 and 2027 aimed at granting permanent status to an additional 140,000 temporary residents. These individuals are not counted within the 380,000 annual target. When combined, these figures would mean a total of 520,000 people gaining permanent residency over the two-year period through the separate programs, a number that critics argue represents an increase from the previous government's controversial plan.

Targeting temporary resident levels

A key government goal is to reduce the number of temporary residents in Canada to five per cent of the total population. According to Statistics Canada estimates from July 1, the non-permanent resident population currently sits at 6.7 per cent of the total population. This indicates a significant reduction would be required to meet the government's target. The annual immigration levels update, which outlines these plans, is being published after its legally mandated Nov. 1 deadline. The Immigration and Refugees Protection Act states the report must be tabled in Parliament on or before that day if the House is sitting.

The government's revised stance on immigration comes amid broader political tensions. Nosy Mag reported in October that an Alberta referendum included proposals on provincial control of immigration, reflecting regional discontent with federal policy. Prime Minister Carney told the New York Times in September that the question is now about timing for a controlled population increase, suggesting the current reductions are a temporary recalibration. The inclusion of the immigration plan in the budget, a document focused on fiscal policy, shows the government's effort to frame population growth as an economic management issue.

During his Monday speech in Toronto, Champagne reiterated his critique of past reliance on population expansion. “And therefore, that’s what we did. We’ve been able to bring the immigration level to a more sustainable level for now, but also for the future,” he said, repeating his earlier Ottawa remarks. The budget will be the second under Prime Minister Mark Carney as the economy faces headwinds from trade disputes. The government's move to delay the immigration report past its legal deadline highlights the political sensitivity of the issue as it prepares to release its broader fiscal plan. The budget will be tabled on Thursday.

With files from The Canadian Press, Global News and CityNews