Carney and Smith share stage in final push to keep Alberta in Canada

Analysis

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith shared a stage in Red Deer on Friday, urging voters to keep the province in Canada ahead of Monday’s historic separation referendum. The joint appearance highlighted a unified front on the main ballot question, even as a public rift remained over nine other proposals from the premier. Smith used the event to hand Carney literature promoting her immigration plans, which he has urged voters to reject. The campaign’s final days saw federal and provincial politicians crisscrossing Alberta to drive up turnout for the pro-Canada vote.

“As you know, we don’t always agree on everything. We often disagree quite publicly on several things,” Smith told the crowd of supporters decked in red and white. “But today we can all agree that on Question 10, that we are voting for Option 1 to remain in Canada.” The premier’s comment referenced the single question on whether Alberta should hold a future, binding referendum on separation. Her nine other questions propose restricting some newcomers’ access to social services and charging some non-permanent residents for health and education, measures she argues would give her leverage to gain more provincial autonomy.

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A day earlier, Carney had urged Albertans to vote “no to the nine,” creating a public crack in their thawing relationship. Smith responded on social media and stood her ground in Red Deer. “I have bad news for you, Prime Minister: All of the premiers are interested in talking about immigration and how we might be able to reform it,” she told him, while former premier Ed Stelmach, who co-authored an op-ed calling for voters to reject the immigration questions, stood beside her. Smith says she is seeking to fortify her mandate with public approval on those questions.

Carney’s personal appeal for unity

Later Friday, Carney headlined a large Forever Canadian rally at the Edmonton Expo Centre, repeating a message he delivered in Calgary the night before. He told the crowd of over five thousand that the referendum was not a game of poker. “A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities for Albertans and for Canadians,” the prime minister said to cheers. He warned that some outside Canada’s borders are “working to break us, so they can own us,” and urged people not to think any outcome was assured.

Carney’s speech was loaded with regional references, from his childhood skating rink in Laurier Heights to the Edmonton Oilers. He acknowledged past grievances, saying, “The frustrations that many Albertans have felt are real.” He recalled how Ottawa made Albertans feel their resources weren’t their own and that more recently they were made to feel their energy contributions were “running against the tides of history.” He positioned his government as different, touting the Pacific Link pipeline as a “nation-building” project with Alberta at its heart, which he said would create 140,000 jobs and reduce dependence on the United States.

Some in the audience shared those sentiments around energy. John Buie, who spent much of his career in the oil industry in Fort McMurray, said he understands the anger. “You had Trudeau senior, and there was a lot of anger, and rightfully so,” Buie said, alluding to Pierre Trudeau’s national energy program. “I understand some of the sentiment about how Alberta is being treated. But separation’s not the answer.” Carney also acknowledged broken promises to Indigenous people, saying, “Because when something is not right, when it isn't fair, we don't hide from it, we don't walk away from it, we fix it. We fix it together.”

Conservative voices and the ‘soft separatism’ argument

At the Canada Strong and Free Network conference in Calgary, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre made his case for voters to reject a second separation referendum. He argued that many frustrations driving separatism, such as concerns about immigration, affordability and energy policy, are shared by Canadians across the country. “Much of this referendum debate has rightly focused on the flaws of the country. But while we focus on those things, we must not forget, and we must not ignore, what Canada has done for Alberta,” Poilievre told the crowd of roughly 200 people.

He directly addressed those considering a protest vote. “To those people who are thinking about taking out their frustration on the current government by voting for separation, I say this: Canada is more than a government. It is a people, a flag, a land, a history, a promise.” While Poilievre did not mention Smith’s nine other questions, he encouraged voters to “lock arms with Quebeckers who want to have full autonomy over their provincial jurisdiction, just like we Albertans do.” Conservative MP Dane Lloyd, spearheading the party’s pro-Canada campaign, told The Globe and Mail that door-knocking has met few big-city Albertans voting for a separation referendum, with support higher in rural areas but still “overwhelmingly pro-Canada.”

Former premier Jason Kenney credited Carney’s campaign strategy, pointing to the prime minister’s push for an oil pipeline and rollback of Trudeau-era energy policies. “I think he’s played it just about right. He’s not been here constantly, and he’s not telling us, telling Albertans how to think or what to do,” Kenney said. “He’s one of us; he’s saying, ‘Let’s get this done together.’” At the Edmonton rally, Mayor Andrew Knack asked the crowd to consider the nine other questions, arguing they were meant to divide Albertans. The audience responded by chanting “no to nine.” Elections Alberta is expecting a strong turnout, estimating between 80 and 85 per cent of registered voters will cast a ballot. As of Friday night, more than one million Albertans had already voted. Advance voting continues Saturday, with polling stations opening Monday at 9 a.m.

With files from The Globe and Mail, CBC News and Global News