Communities

Chow leads Toronto mayoral race but Bradford gains ground in new poll

A new poll shows 16 percent of voters are undecided three weeks before the Oct. 26 election.

By Hannah MacKenzie, Staff Writer
October 3, 2026

Explainer

Olivia Chow holds a six-point lead over Brad Bradford in the race for Toronto mayor, according to a new poll released three weeks before the municipal election. The Mainstreet Research survey, conducted on Sept. 28 and 29, puts Chow at 38.1 percent support and Bradford at 32.2 percent. Chris Alexander is a distant third with 7.2 percent support, while Sarah McVie and Odessa Paloma Parker trail further behind. With 16 percent of voters undecided and another 14 percent saying they might change their minds, the contest remains fluid heading into the Oct. 26 vote.

"The race remains Olivia Chow's to lose," said Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research. "With 16 per cent remaining undecided and another 14 per cent saying they might change their minds on how to vote, the next mayor of Toronto is far from certain at this point." The poll of 1,000 Toronto adults has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The numbers show a slight tightening since Mainstreet's mid-September poll, which had Chow at 38.8 percent and Bradford at 31.4 percent.

Which demographic groups support each candidate?

Chow leads more comfortably among younger voters, according to the poll. She holds a seven-point lead among those under 35, an 11-point lead among voters aged 35 to 44, and a 17-point lead among those aged 45 to 54. Among older voters, however, Bradford leads Chow by seven percent with voters between 55 and 64. He trails by just two percent among voters over 65, a gap Mainstreet describes as a statistical tie. With turnout historically higher among older voters, Bradford's strength with that demographic could be a significant factor on election day.

What are the top issues for Toronto voters?

Affordability and the cost of living are the dominant concerns, with 78 percent of respondents saying it will play an important role in their vote. Breaking it down, 35 percent said housing costs including rent and mortgage payments are their biggest affordability concern, while nearly 26 percent pointed to groceries and other everyday expenses. About three quarters of respondents said Toronto has become either "much less affordable" or "somewhat less affordable" over the past two years. A plurality of voters, 23.9 percent, said any tax increases should go toward paying for affordable housing and fighting homelessness.

How are the candidates addressing the city's budget?

The next mayor will inherit a persistent financial shortfall, with Toronto facing an annual operating budget pressure of more than $1 billion. Mayor Chow, who took office in 2023, oversaw residential property tax increases of 9.5 and 6.9 percent in her first two years, though she has said future hikes would be at or near inflation. She also secured a "new deal" with Premier Doug Ford that provided $1.2 billion over three years for operating costs and transferred responsibility for two major expressways to the province. Her leading challengers, Brad Bradford and Chris Alexander, have both pledged to freeze property taxes in their first year, a move that would add to the budget shortfall.

Bradford has also promised to eliminate the city's land-transfer tax on the first $1.1 million of a principal residence's cost, which he says would cost the city $300 million a year. He accuses Chow of taking record amounts of money from other governments while city services languish. Alexander said he would push city staff to find $130 million to cover the cost of a tax freeze and would seek a more comprehensive, permanent funding arrangement with the provincial and federal governments. Chow has pointed out that her budgets have already included hundreds of millions in savings found through internal reviews.

The poll also asked respondents who they would choose if the race came down to just Chow and Bradford. In that scenario, Chow leads with 47 percent support to Bradford's 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided. Voters in Toronto will elect their next mayor on Oct. 26 from a field of 53 candidates.

With files from The Canadian Press, National Post and CBC News