Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford by six points in Toronto mayoral race poll
A new survey finds 16 per cent of voters are undecided and 14 per cent say they might change their minds before the Oct. 26 election.
Explainer
A new poll shows Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford by six points in the Toronto mayoral race with just over three weeks until election day.
The Mainstreet Research survey, conducted Sept. 28 and 29, puts the incumbent mayor at 38.1 per cent support.
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City councillor Brad Bradford is in second place with 32.2 per cent support.
"The race remains Olivia Chow's to lose," said Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research.
Chris Alexander sits at a distant third with 7.2 per cent support, followed by Sarah McVie at 2 per cent and Odessa Paloma Parker at 1.8 per cent.
Other candidates are grouped at 2.7 per cent.
The poll found 16 per cent of voters are undecided and another 14 per cent say they might change their minds.
More than a quarter of Chris Alexander voters report they might change their minds.
How does the poll break down by age?
Chow leads more comfortably among voters under 55 years old.
She leads by seven points among those under 35, by 11 points among voters between 35 and 44, and by 17 points among those between 45 and 54.
Among older voters, however, Bradford leads Chow by seven per cent with voters between 55 and 64.
He trails by just two per cent among voters over 65, which Mainstreet says is a statistical tie.
With turnout expected to be higher among older voters, Bradford's edge could be a significant factor in the final outcome.
What are the top issues for voters?
About 78 per cent of respondents said affordability and the cost of living will play an important role in how they cast their vote.
Forty-four per cent said it was "extremely important" while nearly 34 per cent said it was "very important."
Breaking it down further, 35 per cent said housing costs including rent and mortgage payments are their biggest affordability concerns.
Groceries and other everyday expenses were the biggest affordability concerns of nearly 26 per cent.
About three quarters of respondents said that over the past two years, Toronto has become either "much less affordable" or "somewhat less affordable."
The affordability concerns for almost 3 in 10 include spending on public and transit safety.
A plurality of voters said any tax increases should go toward paying for affordable housing and fighting homelessness.
What are the candidates saying about the city's finances?
Toronto faces an annual budget shortfall, pegged this year at $1.3 billion, which must be filled as municipalities cannot borrow to cover operating deficits.
Chow imposed two large property-tax hikes in a row and secured a "new deal" with Premier Doug Ford that provided $1.2 billion over three years for operating costs.
The province also agreed to take over two major expressways, the Gardiner Expressway and the Don Valley Parkway.
She has said future hikes, if re-elected, would be at or near inflation, similar to this year's hike of 2.2 per cent.
Both Bradford and Alexander have pledged to freeze property taxes in their first year in office.
Bradford also says he would eliminate the city's land-transfer tax on the first $1.1 million of a principal residence's cost, a move he says would cost the city $300 million a year.
He has promised an external "line-by-line" review of city spending to find savings, while borrowing more money to cover infrastructure costs.
Bradford accuses Chow of taking a record amount of money from other governments and still failing to deal with the city's financial woes.
In an interview, Alexander said he would push city staff to find the $130 million needed to cover the cost of his tax freeze and seek a more comprehensive, permanent arrangement with other governments.
"You want a super new deal," Alexander said. "I think it should be a bridge to something that is institutionalized."
He argued he would be a better negotiator in seeking a more comprehensive, permanent arrangement involving both Queen's Park and Ottawa.
Chow has pointed out that her recent budgets have already relied on hundreds of millions of dollars in belt-tightening found through "line-by-line" scrutiny of the city's books by its own staff.
Nosy Mag reported in September that candidates clashed over property taxes and transit in a debate.
The poll was based on a survey of 1,000 adults in Toronto, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Maggi added, "With 16 per cent remaining undecided and another 14 per cent saying they might change their minds on how to vote, the next mayor of Toronto is far from certain at this point."
Toronto goes to the polls on Oct. 26.
With files from The Canadian Press, National Post and CBC News