Michigan Republican candidate breaks with Trump over trade war with Canada

Explainer

Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has publicly broken with U.S. President Donald Trump over the trade war with Canada, calling for an end to tariffs in a new campaign ad. The ad, posted on social media Wednesday, shows Rogers sitting at a bar holding a Labatt's beer and states that people in Michigan "know that Canada is not our enemy." The message marks a shift for Rogers, who had previously endorsed Trump's tariff policy. The trade war has become a central issue in the tight Michigan Senate race against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, with the outcome potentially critical for control of the Senate.

"We need to end this tariff war now," Rogers said in the 30-second ad, which also features an image of the Ambassador Bridge connecting Windsor and Detroit. "As Michigan's senator, I'll bring both parties together to lower your prices. That's job No. 1." While Rogers did not mention Trump by name, the ad is a clear reference to the 50 per cent tariffs the president imposed on $28 billion worth of Canadian goods in August and the retaliatory duties Ottawa imposed weeks later. Last week, a U.S. import ban on some Canadian liquor, whey products and motorcycles officially took effect.

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How did Trump react to the ad?

When asked about the ad at the White House later Wednesday, Trump was dismissive and recast Rogers's message. "I viewed him as saying he thinks Canada should make a deal," Trump said, before repeating his claims about Canada ripping off the United States. "We don't want them to make cars for us.... It's a long story, but they've been ripping us off. Canada has been ripping us off for many, many years and they're not going to rip us off anymore." Trump added that Canada wants to make a deal but his administration is not satisfied.

Why is this a shift for Mike Rogers?

The ad represents an about-face for Rogers, who has long been closely associated with Trump. Earlier this year, Rogers said he was "thrilled" to receive Trump's endorsement, stating, "Together, President Trump and I will unleash a great revival in the state of Michigan." In an interview with Fox News this summer, Rogers said Trump's trade policy designed to "reindustrialize" the U.S. was "huge for us." He said Canada wants to sell hundreds of thousands of cars into Michigan and that should be "absolutely unacceptable" because those exports "undercut the people who build cars and car parts." As recently as August, Rogers cautioned that tariffs are "necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution" in a campaign press release.

What is the political context in Michigan?

Michigan's economy is deeply integrated with Canada, particularly in the automobile industry, making the state especially vulnerable to tariffs. According to the Canadian government, Michigan exports $21.2 billion in goods to Canada annually and imports $43.5 billion. The Canadian and U.S. auto sectors have one of the most deeply intertwined cross-border manufacturing relationships in the world, with parts crossing the border multiple times. About three-quarters of all vehicles sold in Canada are imported, with the majority coming from U.S. plants in Michigan, Indiana and Texas. Dearborn-based Ford has been the top vehicle brand in Canada for years.

Rogers's break with Trump comes as polls suggest the tariffs are deeply unpopular. A Politico poll late last month found only 26 per cent of Americans surveyed said levying tariffs on Canadian goods was the right thing to do. Rogers is also trailing El-Sayed in most public opinion surveys. Matthew Lebo, a political science professor at Western University, said polls show a general shift towards Democrats compared to the 2024 election, putting many Senate races in play. "Michigan is as close to a 50-50 state as there is," Lebo said in a text message. He added that Rogers, who is not an incumbent, can try to paint himself as an independent-minded Republican who will break with Trump when it's right for Michigan.

How has the Democratic candidate responded?

Abdul El-Sayed, who has also focused on the trade war in his campaign, responded sharply to Rogers's new ad. "Must have had one too many of those Labatts, Mike," El-Sayed said in a social media post. He accused Rogers of supporting the tariff war from the beginning and flip-flopping now because his poll numbers are in free fall. El-Sayed said Trump is the reason for the trade war and the reason Rogers is running, calling his opponent not a serious person.

The Michigan Senate race is considered a toss-up and could prove critical in the midterm elections next month. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a Senate majority. More Republicans have been distancing their campaigns from the president as polls show Trump's approval rating dropping over the war with Iran, higher gas prices, inflation and controversial immigration tactics. Rogers had previously broken with Trump on another issue last month, saying the war in Iran needs to "end quickly" in a campaign video focused on energy costs.

With files from The Canadian Press, CityNews and CBC News